Cholera burden and transmission modeling

Epidemiology surveillance - Vaccines active

Project timeline: 01/08/2019 - 31/07/2022

Lead Researcher

Dr. Andrew Azman

Organisation / Institution

Johns Hopkins Bloomberg School of Public Health

Funders

Bill & Melinda Gates Foundation

Project summary

Cholera remains a persistent global health problem that can be controlled by appropriate water and sanitation and oral cholera vaccination. Our project aims to support the geographic targeting of cholera control interventions with four key objectives:

  • maintenance of a global database of cholera surveillance data which can be used by countries and GTFCC stakeholders to access centralized data sources and understand the country and regional cholera epidemiology;
  • development of a statistical mapping pipeline, which produces high resolution global maps of cholera burden;
  • provision of technical epidemiological and modeling support to countries and NGOs in cholera control;
  • participation in GTFCC working groups to develop evidence-driven guidance related to cholera surveillance and elimination, targeting OCV campaigns, and identifying cholera burden hotspots.

Lay summary

This project supports efforts to map the global burden of cholera through the maintenance of a global database of cholera incidence and mortality and the development of statistical modeling methods to produce high resolution maps of cholera burden. The study team is working to develop a user-friendly web interface to the cholera database to support country and GTFCC stakeholder access to centralized data sources, and the global burden maps serve as the foundation for many planning and intervention targeting activities such as strategic demand forecasts for OCV and hotspot identification.

Potential for public health impact or global health decision-making

Effective targeting of OCV campaigns and WASH interventions for cholera control requires knowledge of the highest burden areas worldwide. The global cholera database and mapping efforts resulting from this project support countries and GTFCC stakeholders in characterizing cholera epidemiology and targeting their cholera control efforts.

Co-Investigators

Elizabeth Lee, Johns Hopkins Bloomberg School of Public Health
Justin Lessler, UNC-Chapel Hill

Key Collaborators

GTFCC Secretariat
MSF

Resources (4)

Publication

El Niño and the shifting geography of cholera in Africa

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Publication

Mapping the burden of cholera in sub-Saharan Africa and implications for control: an analysis of data across geographical scales

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Publication

The projected impact of geographic targeting of oral cholera vaccination in sub-Saharan Africa: A modeling study

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Publication

Achieving coordinated national immunity and cholera elimination in Haiti through vaccination: a modelling study

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